TRAGEDI Priok kembali terulang meskipun berbeda dari tahun 1984 yang merupakan buah konflik antarelemen masyarakat sipil yang berhadapan dengan kekuatan represif negara dalam kondisi politik otoriter. Tragedi Priok 14 April 2010 melibatkan masyarakat yang berhadapan dengan aparatur penegak hukum sipil, Satpol PP.
Bentrokan berdarah yang disulut rencana pembongkaran makam tokoh karismatik Al Imam Al Arif Billah Sayyidina Al Habib Hasan bin Muhammad Al Haddad atau Mbah Priok itu menyebabkan seorang tewas dan sedikitnya 134 orang luka-luka (SM, 15/04/10).
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Priok, Spiral Kekerasan Sosial
Miras dan Gejala Eskapisme Semu
’’PESTA Miras, Tiga Orang Tewas’’, demikian judul berita harian ini (SM, 04/04/10). Sedikitnya tiga nyawa warga Brebes melayang setelah mereka pesta minuman keras (miras) oplosan.
Angka tersebut menambah panjang deretan jumlah korban jiwa sia-sia akibat me-ngonsumsi miras oplosan. Menurut catatan penulis, selama setahun terakhir miras oplosan merenggut sedikitnya 100 nyawa di seluruh wilayah Tanah Air.
Diawali dari Kota Banjar dan Kabupaten Indramayu (Jawa Barat), Kota Semarang dan Kota Tegal (Jawa Tengah), Kabupaten Sanglah (Bali), Manokwari (Papua), tewasnya 9 warga Yogyakarta usai pesta miras oplosan jenis lapen Februari 2010, tewasnya empat orang warga Cengkareng, Jakarta akhir Maret 2010, hingga kejadian terakhir yang menewaskan tiga warga Brebes tersebut.
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Eugenika, Akhir Kekhilafan Pendidikan
Ketika Undang-Undang Badan Hukum Pendidikan Nomor 9 Tahun 2009 dibatalkan Mahkamah Konstitusi, saya sempat tidak menyadari bahwa ada kekhilafan yang telah dikoreksi.
Saya yakin Undang-Undang Badan Hukum Pendidikan (UU BHP) adalah hasil pemikiran para akademisi dari perguruan tinggi. Namun, bagaimana mungkin sumbangan itu justru melahirkan produk hukum yang mengkhianati rakyat dan bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang Dasar 1945?Saya pun yakin idealisme sebagian besar pendidik di perguruan tinggi belum tergadaikan untuk menjadikan lembaga pendidikan tinggi sebagai ”industri jasa pendidikan”.
Maka, menurut saya, memang tidak mudah menjalankan amanat UU Sistem Pendidikan Nasional (UU Sisdiknas) tanpa kekhilafan.
Oleh karena itu, tulisan ini
lebih mengungkapkan kekhawatiran terhadap kekhilafan dunia pendidikan yang dapat membuat kita tanpa sadar keliru dan berakhir pada ”eugenika”.
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Mengelola Politik Karisma
Demokrasi politik meniscayakan karisma dan hingga kini kita masih menyimak banyak fenomenanya. Di Indonesia, misalnya, tak hanya Megawati Soekarnoputri yang mempertegas posisinya sebagai Ketua Umum PDI Perjuangan, tetapi juga Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono yang restunya diyakini sangat menentukan siapa pucuk pimpinan Partai Demokrat.
Di Thailand, demonstran ”Kaus Merah” yang menggegerkan pentas politik yang demikian masif tak lepas dari efek karisma mantan PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Di AS pun, hadirnya Barack Obama sebagai presiden juga tak dapat dielakkan dari karisma.
Dalam khazanah sosiologi politik, Max Weber pernah menjelaskan adanya otoritas karismatis, yang terkait dengan persepsi adanya individu yang memiliki karakter pribadi dan ”kesucian” luar biasa, heroik, serta berdimensi kewahyuan. Otoritas karismatis ini bersifat familial dan ”keagamaan” (religious). Otoritas tradisional bersifat patriarkal, patrimonial, dan feodal. Otoritas legal lebih terkait pada aspek hukum dan kenegaraan modern dan bersifat birokratis.
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Gayus dan Patologi Birokrasi
Vices, maladies, and sickness of bureaucracy constitute bureaupathologies. They are not individual failings of individuals who compose organizations but the systematic shortcomings of organizations that cause individuals within them to be quilty of malpractices. (Gerald E Caiden, 1991).
Gayus Tambunan mendadak saja menjadi orang yang terkenal saat ini di Indonesia. Bukan karena prestasinya di birokrasi meningkatkan penerimaan pajak, melainkan justru karena perbuatannya telah memperkokoh keyakinan tentang buruknya birokrasi Indonesia.
Tidak semua birokrat seperti Gayus, tetapi kelemahan sistem organisasi seperti dituliskan oleh Caiden—seorang pakar ternama reformasi administrasi—telah membentuk citra menyeluruh mengenai buruknya birokrasi Indonesia.
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Ideologi Media Massa
Media massa hampir selalu berada dalam impitan dua kepentingan. Kepentingan pertama, bisnis. Kepentingan kedua, idealisme.
Di tengah dua kepentingan itu sangat sulit bagi konsumen pers mengharap sajian media massa yang tidak berpihak. Sajian pers Indonesia pun tidak terlepas dari kapitalisme media di satu sisi, dan euforia publik di sisi lain. Euforia publik dan kapitalisme media itu dibentuk oleh terpaan globalisasi dan hedonisme, yang mengakibatkan kesenjangan komunikasi antara pengelola lembaga media, dengan berbagai pemangku kepentingannya.
Perbedaan mindset antara pemilik dan pengelola pers dengan konsumen pers merupakan embrio kegagalan media massa membangun human dignity di tengah kehidupan individu dan masyarakat. Salah satu dampaknya adalah lubernya aksesibilitas pers dalam membentuk, mengarahkan, dan mengendalikan opini publik, yang tak diimbangi akuntabilitas eksternal media massa sebagaimana seharusnya.
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Budaya Hidup Bersih di Grobogan
KEBERHASILAN Kabupaten Grobogan memperbaiki peringkat perolehan Adipura beberapa tahun terakhir ini, haruslah kita syukuri. Hal itu mengingat tahun-tahun sebelumnya kendati telah bekerja keras untuk memperbaiki peringkat, hasilnya masih jauh dari harapan masyarakat. Baru beberapa tahun terakhir inilah dapat memperoleh hasil menggemberikan. Kesuksesan itu menjadikan daerah ini menjadi salah satu yang diperhitungkan dalam persaingan meraih penghargaan tersebut.
Apalagi saat ini Grobogan terus berbenah. Bekerja keras untuk memperbaiki 20 titik atau kawasan yang menjadi penilaian. Terutama areal pasar, sekolah, jalan raya, dan terminal. Bila kerja keras ini selalu konsisten dilaksanakan, maka tidak mustahil ke depan daerah ini dapat meraih prestasi terbaik.
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Budaya dan Karakter Bangsa
JIKA kita menapaki Hopkins Memorial Steps di Massachusetts terbaca jelas inkripsi yang puitis: Climb high / Climb far / Your goal the sky / Your aim the star.
Mendidik adalah menyentuh masa depan. Manusia bisa meraih lebih dari sekadar sepanjang tangannya. Tatkala Aristoteles ditanya apa bedanya orang yang terdidik dengan orang yang tidak berpendidikan, jawabannya amat menyengat: ‘’Sama saja membandingkan orang hidup dengan orang mati’’.
Francis Bacon, filsuf Inggris pernah menyatakan bahwa knowledge is power. Tidak ada batas usia untuk belajar, menimba ilmu, menambah pengetahuan. Makin banyak kita belajar, semakin sadar kita akan banyaknya rahasia alam yang belum terungkap. Apa yang sudah kita ketahui bisa diibaratkan beberapa butir pasir di pantai yang luas.
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Proses Teaching with Love
PALING tidak kita mempunyai dua pengalaman dalam mengembangkan pendidikan budaya dan karakter bangsa, yaitu masa rezim Soekarno dan di masa rezim Soeharto. Pada masa demokrasi terpimpin dan pada era demokrasi Pancasila. Yang pertama dikenal dengan cara program santiaji dalam rangka nation and character building, atau membangun karakter bangsa, dan yang kedua dilaksanakan lewat program penataran P4, yang berisi pedoman, penghayatan, dan pengamalan Pancasila.
Keduanya dilaksanakan lewat jalur pendidikan formal dalam kerangka kurikulum sekolah, ataupun dalam jalur pendidikan nonformal atau luar sekolah.
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Melihat Artikel dibayar Rp 300,00 - Rp 3.000,00. Siapa Yang Mau?
Kemarin baru jalan-jalan di sebuah forum. Di forum tersebut dijelaskan bahwa ada program baru, kaya PTC, namun bayarannya super mahal. Kalo PTC biasa bayarannya adalah 300, namun PTC yang ini bayarannya antara 300 - 3000 wow.... Saya sudah mencobanya dan nilai terbesarnya adalah 3.000 rupiah, kalo aslinya sih $0.3 wow...
20 X 500 = 10.000 sehari
20 X 500 X 30 = 300.000 sebulan
20 X 500 X 12 = 3.600.000 setahun20 x 500 x 12 x 5 = 18 JUTA LIMA TAHUN
wow fantastik
Ingin mencoba silakan daftar saja di sini :
KLIK DISINI UNTUK MENDAFTAR
untuk caranya download Ebook saya di bawah :
DOWNLOAD EBOOK
DOWNLOAD EBOOK
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Knowing the Ins and Outs of Chandelier Exit
Have you ever heard of a stop placement strategy that trails stop based on previous 'high' points? It is called Chandelier exit as it hangs down from the high point or the ceiling of our trade, just as a chandelier hangs from a room ceiling. The distance, which is usually calculated from the high point to the trailing stop; could also be calculated in dollars or in contract based points. However, the value of this trailing stop moves upward very promptly as higher highs is reached.
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Lines of trends, support and resistance
The trendline is a main initial element for the price chart analysis. While the market moves in any direction not along a straight line but along a zigzag, the mutual placement of upper and bottom points of those zigzags permits you to plot a line connecting the significant highs (peaks) or the significant lows (troughs) of an appropriate zigzag using technical tools of the computer program (See Figures 4.1 – 4.3). To draw a trendline only two points are necessary and the third one is the contact point confirmation. On a bullish trend chart it should be drawn using troughs, on a bearish trend chart – using peaks. The trendline and a line which is about parallel to it and drawn on the opposite side (through peaks on a dullish trend and through troughs on a bearish)form the trade channel. Both lines are then channel’s borders. Examples of trade channels are shown on Figures 4.9, 4.10.
Lines of support and resistance. The upper and the bottom borders of trade channels are called accordingly support and resistance lines. The peaks represent the price levels at which the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure. They are known as resistance levels. The troughs, on the other hand, represent the levels at which the selling pressure succumbs to the buying pressure. They are called support levels. In an uptrend, the consecutive support and resistance levels must exceed each other respectively. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Although minor exceptions are acceptable, these failures should be considered as warning signals for trend changing.
The significance of trends is a function of time and volume. The longer the prices bounce off the support and resistance levels, the more significant the trend becomes. Trading volume is also very important, especially at the critical support and resistance levels. When the currency bounces off these levels under heavy volume, the significance of the trend increases. The importance of support and resistance levels goes beyond their original functions. If these levels are convincingly penetrated, they tend to turn into just the opposite. A firm support level, once it is penetrated on heavy volume, will likely turn into a strong resistance level (see Figure 4.11). Conversely, a strong resistance turns into a firm support after being penetrated (see Figure 4.12). In general, to evaluate the reliability (that is the possibility of a break) of the trade channel borders taking a decision to close or to save an existing position one should govern himself with following rules:
1. A channel is the more reliable the longer it exists. Hence, the “solidity” of very old channels (e.g. existing more than 1 year) decreased sharply.
2. A channel is the more reliable the more is his width (“It takes time to break channel”).
3. The resistance may be broken if it is bounced on the background of a growing volume (“It takes volume to break resistance”).
4. A steep channel is less reliable in compare to a gentle one.
5. The support may be broken independent on the volume (“under own weight”).
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Charts for the technical analysis
Kinds of prices and time units. Charts for technical analysis are being constructed in coordinates,“price (the vertical axis) – time (the horizontal axis)”. The following kinds of currency prices represented on charts are being distinguished on Forex:
• open – a price at the beginning of a trade period (year, month, day, week, hour,
minute or a certain amount of one from these units);
• close - a price at the end of a trade period;
• high – the highest from prices observed during a trade period;
• low – the lowest from prices observed during a trade period.
Providing the technical analysis one uses charts for different time units – from 1 year or more until 1 minute. For instance, the computer program Trading Intl. uses allows you to analyze price movement charts for 1 day, 4 hours, 30 minutes, 15 minutes, 5 minutes and 1 minute. The longer the time unit applied to plotting the chart, the longer the time span used to analyze price movements and to determine the major trend by means of the chart. For short trading, charts for smaller time units are more suitable.
Line chart. The line chart is plotted connecting single prices for a selected time period. The most popular line chart is the daily chart. Although any point in the day can be plotted, most traders focus on the closing price, which they perceive as the most important. But an immediate problem with the daily line chart is the fact that it is impossible to see the price activity for the balance of the period as well as gaps (See chapter 4.6) – breakups in prices at joints of trade periods.
Nevertheless, line charts are easier to visualize. Also, technical analysis goes well beyond chart formation; in order to execute certain models and techniques, line charts are better suited than any of the other charts.
Bar chart. The bar chart consists from separate histograms (See figure 4.7). To plot a histogram in coordinates price – time the points responding to high, low, open and close prices for a time period analyzed should be marked on the one vertical bar. The opening price usually is marked with a little horizontal line to the left of the bar; and the closing price is marked with a little horizontal line to the right of the bar. Bar charts have the obvious advantage of displaying the currency range for the period selected. An advantage of this chart is that, unlike line charts, the bar chart is able to plot price gaps. Hence, it is impossible to see on a bar chart absolutely all price movements during the period.
Candlestick chart. The candlestick chart is closely related to the bar chart. It also consists of four major prices: high, low, open, and close (See Figure 4.8). In addition to the common readings, the candlestick chart has a set of particular interpretations. The latter is possible thanks to the convenient visual observation of that chart.
The opening and closing prices form the body (jittai) of the candlestick. To indicate that the opening was lower than the closing, the body of the bar is left blank. Current standard electronic displays allow you to keep it blank or select a color of your choice. If the currency closes below its opening, the body is filled. In its original form, the body was colored black, but the electronic displays allow you to keep it filled or to select a color of your choice. The intraday (or weekly) direction on a candlestick chart can be traced by means of two "shadows": the upper shadow (uwakage) and the lower shadow (shitakage). Just as with a bar chart, the candlestick chart is unable to trace every price movement during a period's activity.
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The destination and fundamentals of technical analysis
Technical analysis is used for the prediction of market movements (that is alterations in currencies prices, volumes and open interests) outgoing from the information obtained for the past. The main instruments of technical analysis are different kinds of charts, which represent currencies price change during a certain time preceding exchange deals, as well as technical indicators. The latter are obtained as a result of the mathematical processing of averaging and other characteristics of price movements. The instruments of technical analysis are universal and applicable to any Forex sector, any currency and any time span.
Technical analysis is easy to compute what is important while the technical services are becoming increasingly sophisticated and reasonably priced. They are available to all Forex participants independent of their trade plans, strategies applied and the time of position continuance.
DOW Theory
The fundamental principles of technical analysis are based on the Dow Theory with the following main thesis:
- The price is a comprehensive reflection of all the market forces. At any given time, all market information and forces are reflected in the currency prices (“The market knows everything”).
- Price movements are trend followers (“Trend is your friend”); trends are classified as up trends (bullish), downtrends (bearish) and flat (sideways).
- Price movements are historically repetitive (“The history repeats”) which results in the same patterns periodically emerging on the charts.
- The market has three trends: the longest (about 1 year) major, or primary, less enduring (1 month and more) intermediate, or secondary, and rather short (several days or weeks) minor. The primary trend has three phases: accumulation, run-up/run-down, and distribution. In this way, in the accumulation phase of a bullish market the shrewdest traders enter new positions. In the run-up/run-down phase, the majority of the market finally "sees" the move and jumps on the bandwagon. Finally, in the distribution phase, the keenest traders take their profits and close their positions while the general trading interest slows down in an overshooting market. The secondary trend is a correction to the primary trend and may retrace one-third, one-half or two-thirds from the primary trend. In frame of a major trend may be any amount of secondary or minor trends.
- Trends exist until they are broken and their reversals are confirmed. It shows examples of reversals in a bearish currency market. The buying signals occur at points A and В when the currency exceeds the previous highs.
Forex dependence on financial and sociopolitical factors
Financial factors are vital to fundamental analysis. Changes in a government's monetary or fiscal policies are bound to generate changes in the economy, and these will be reflected in the exchange rates. Financial factors should be triggered only by economic factors. When governments focus on different aspects of the economy or have additional international responsibilities, financial factors may have priority over economic factors. This was painfully true in the case of the European Monetary System (EMS) in the early 1990s. The realities of the marketplace revealed the underlying artificiality of this approach.
The role of interest rates. Using the interest rates independently from the real economic environment translated into a very expensive strategy. Because foreign exchange, by definition, consists of simultaneous transactions in two currencies, then it follows that the market must focus on two respective interest rates as well. This is the interest rate differential, a basic factor in the markets. Traders react when the interest rate differential changes, not simply when the interest rates themselves change. For example, if all the G-5 countries decided to simultaneously lower their interest rates by 0.5 percent, the move would be neutral for foreign exchange, because the interest rate differentials would also be neutral. Of course, most of the time the discount rates are cut unilaterally, a move that generates changes in both the interest differential and the exchange rate. Traders approach the interest rates like any other factor, trading on expectations and facts.For example, if rumor says that a discount rate will be cut, the respective currency will be sold before the fact. Once the cut occurs, it is quite possible that the currency will be bought back, or the other way around. An unexpected change in interest rates is likely to trigger a sharp currency move.
Other factors affecting the trading decision are the time lag between the rumor and the fact, the reasons behind the interest rate change, and the perceived importance of the change. The market generally prices in a discount rate change that was delayed. Since it is a fait accompli, it is neutral to the market. If the discount rate was changed for political rather than economic reasons, a common practice in the European Monetary System, the markets are likely to go against the central banks, sticking to the real fundamentals rather than the political ones. This happened in both September 1992 and the summer of 1993, when the European central banks lost unprecedented amounts of money trying to prop up their currencies, despite having high interest rates. The market perceived those interest rates as artificially high and, therefore, aggressively sold the respective currencies. Finally, traders deal on the perceived importance of a change in the interest rate differential.
Political crises influence. A political crisis is commonly dangerous for the Forex because it may trigger a sharp decrease in trade volumes. Prices under critical conditions dry out quickly, and sometimes the spreads between bid and offer jump from 5 pips to 100 pips. Unlike predictable political events (parliament elections, interstate agreements conclusion etc), which generally take place in an exact time and give market the opportunity to adopt, political crises come and strike suddenly. Currency traders have a knack for responding to crises. The traders should react as fast as possible to avoid big losses. They may not have much time to make decisions, often they have only seconds. Return on the market after a crisis is often problematic.
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